Small-business hiring data disagrees. Your own hiring funnel doesn't.
· 5 min read
Three payroll reports looked at small-business hiring in September 2026 and came back with three different answers. Gusto estimated that small businesses added 28,000 jobs. ADP said the smallest establishments added 18,000. Intuit QuickBooks said the smallest businesses lost 7,000. Gene Marks rounded the reports up in The Guardian on October 18, and the honest summary is: hiring is "not strong, but not weak either."
If you run a small business with an opening right now, that is not much to go on. The good news is that the most useful hiring data for your business is data you can collect yourself.
What the September reports say
Each number below comes from the company that published it.
Gusto: +28,000. Gusto's Small Business Jobs and Pay Report estimated 28,000 net new jobs in September, seasonally adjusted, the eighth straight month of gains. Gusto tracks businesses with 1 to 49 employees, and health care and social assistance led with 13,000 net hires (Gusto).
ADP: +18,000 at establishments with 1 to 19 employees. The ADP National Employment Report showed private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, with 18,000 of them at establishments with 1 to 19 employees (ADP).
Intuit QuickBooks: -7,000 at businesses with 1 to 9 employees. The Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index found employment at the smallest US businesses fell by 7,000 jobs from August, a 0.05% decline (Intuit QuickBooks).
NFIB: hiring plans flat, hiring hard. In NFIB's September survey, released October 13, 26% of owners named "labor quality or availability" as their single most important problem. A seasonally adjusted net 17% plan to create jobs in the next three months, and 87% of owners hiring or trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants (NFIB).
Why the numbers don't match
None of these reports is wrong. They measure different things.
Gusto counts businesses with up to 49 employees. ADP counts establishments, meaning individual locations, with 1 to 19 employees. Intuit counts businesses with 1 to 9 employees. Each starts from its own customers' payroll data and models it to represent the country, and each revises as more data arrives. Gusto, for example, revised August down from 29,500 to 18,500.
So a 6-person shop and a 40-person company can live in very different hiring markets in the same month. National averages blur that.
The question national data can't answer
Picture the owner of a 12-person bakery-cafe. Her early-shift baker gave notice, and she has been trying to fill the role for three weeks. She reads that small businesses are hiring. Then she reads that they aren't.
Neither headline tells her what she actually needs to know. How many people applied? How long did they wait before she called? How many showed up to the interview? Did the one she liked take another job first?
Those answers live in her own process, and right now they are scattered across a job board inbox, a few text threads, and a sticky note by the register.
Four numbers to track in your own funnel
You do not need an economist. You need a few counts you check every week.
- Applicants per opening, by source. Which job board or referral channel actually sends people who fit?
- Time to first contact. How many hours or days pass between an application and your first reply?
- Interview show rate. Of the people you schedule, how many arrive?
- Offer to start. Of the people you offer, how many show up for their first shift?
If NFIB is right that most hiring owners see few or no qualified applicants, each qualified one matters more. These four numbers tell you where you lose them.
Why tracking matters now
NFIB found labor quality was owners' top problem for the third month in a row, while 17% still plan to add jobs. If you are in that group, you are competing for a limited pool of good candidates, and guessing about the market will not change your result. Fixing a slow reply or a no-show problem will.
Where ReadyATS fits
ReadyATS is an applicant tracking system for small businesses and hourly hiring. You post your jobs, track every applicant in one pipeline, text and schedule candidates, and keep your applicants and hiring steps in one place instead of across inboxes and sticky notes.
That makes your own numbers easier to count. When every applicant and every step sits in one place, you can see where people stall and fix that step.
The September reports will be revised, and October's will disagree in new ways. Your funnel is the one data set that answers your question.
FAQ
Did small businesses add or lose jobs in September 2026?
It depends on the report. Gusto estimated +28,000 at businesses with 1 to 49 employees, ADP reported +18,000 at establishments with 1 to 19 employees, and Intuit QuickBooks reported -7,000 at businesses with 1 to 9 employees.
Why do Gusto, ADP, and Intuit disagree?
They measure different size groups, start from different payroll customers, model the data differently, and revise their estimates as new data arrives.
What did NFIB find about hiring?
In September, 26% of owners named labor quality or availability as their top problem, and a seasonally adjusted net 17% plan to create jobs in the next three months.
What should a small business track instead?
Start with applicants per opening by source, time to first contact, interview show rate, and offer to start.
The national data will keep disagreeing. Your numbers can start with your next applicant.
If you have an opening this month, every applicant from here on can be counted, contacted, and tracked. Keep your applicants and hiring steps in one place with ReadyATS.